Saturday, July 25, 2009

Bayes 9b: finish the calculation

Just to finish up from last time, we found that Arnie's posterior distribution was Normal(31.83,1.162). We calculate the Bayesian credible interval using values from Student's t table with df = 4. From wikipedia:

97.5% for df = 4 is 2.776


Compare this to the standard value of 1.96. There is a 95% probability that the true mean lies in the interval

31.83 -/+ 2.776 * 1.16
= 31.83 -/+ 3.22
= 28.61, 35.05

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